[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 21N FROM MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N26W. SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
24W-28W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45/46W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE AXIS IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
LOCATED ALONG A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IS ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS THERE ARE NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 12N35W 14N46W 11N50W
13N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 28W-30W...AND FROM
10N-11N BETWEEN 33W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
30N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 96W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. 5-10 KT E-SE  SURFACE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N107W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
77W-83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 17N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N71W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 78W-81W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N57W 27N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N58W 22N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 41N26W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N43W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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