[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041103 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE WORD EAST TO WEST IN THE
SIXTH LINE OF THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT THE 31W/32W ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N
TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W...SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 7N TO 12N. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCENARIO REGARDING THIS TROUGH MAY CHANGE FOR
THE 04/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF WHAT
WE MAY END UP ANALYZING AS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 12N29W
10N28W 5N31W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N31W. WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ANALYZING AS A TROUGH
MAY DISAPPEAR IN FAVOR OF PUTTING A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE MAP.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 10N44W MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W.

WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW 15N48W-10N44W
TROPICAL WAVE IS A TROUGH ALONG 18N53W 21N54W 24N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO SAINT LUCIA TO
9N60W ABOUT 30 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N21W TO 9N31W 9N44W 8N53W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE THROUGH 30N80W TO 26N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N62W TO 16N65W
TOWARD THE GOLFO DE VENEZUELA ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AND COVERING THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 63W...INCLUDING PRACTICALLY
ALL OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 28N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N71W
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 72W/73W FROM HAITI TO 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 18N99W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND
100W...INCLUDING FROM THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 24N66W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SPACE BETWEEN THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO AND MOROCCO...TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA
NEAR 24N TO 18N22W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net