[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 7N TO 11N. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 33W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N45W 8N42W MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. ONLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS ANYWHERE NEAR
THIS WAVE.

WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE NOW IS A TROUGH
ALONG 17N46W 21N48W 24N49W. WHAT IS THE TROUGH HAS SEPARATED
FROM THE PART THAT STILL IS BEING CONSIDERED TO BE A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 16N45W 8N42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 17N60W TO 9N59W...DRIFTING WESTWARD.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

MORE OR LESS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE THROUGH 30N80W TO 26N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N.
DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS/
PLAINS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE 30N80W 26N90W 24N/MEXICO COAST LINE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N62W TO 16N65W
TOWARD THE GOLFO DE VENEZUELA ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AND COVERING THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 63W...INCLUDING PRACTICALLY
ALL OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W IN HAITI...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 28N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N71W
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 18N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 18N99W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...
INCLUDING FROM THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 24N66W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN HAITI
ALONG 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SPACE
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND MOROCCO...TO THE COAST
OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 24N TO 18N22W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT



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