[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N41W 20N38W 6N36W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N43W...SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
22N67W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W...MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO IS NEARLY COINCIDENTAL WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE. IT MAY NOT BE EASY TO DETERMINE IF ANY SHOWERS ARE RELATED
MORE TO THE WAVE OR MORE TO THE TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT
IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PROBABLY IS MORE RELATED TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

MORE OR LESS ALONG 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W...AND WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N36W 11N40W 11N42W 10N44W 9.5N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 86W.
THIS AREA IS CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE WESTERN CUBA-TO-ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CUBA-TO-ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC SIX HOURS AGO. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
WEAKENING BUT POSSIBLY STILL LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE
ISTHMUS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...IN THE WATERS IN THE MIDDLE OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 24N64W 20N64W TO PUERTO RICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

$$
MT



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