[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVATURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N66W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE N
PORTION OF THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE E OF WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W AND THE WAVE
AXIS. THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR...THUS NO ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W
THROUGH GUATEMALA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 14N91W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE AXIS TRANSECTS AND UPPER LOW THAT
INLAND OVER GUATEMALA/SE MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING W INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N E OF 93W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N22W 9N30W 11N36W 9N50W
10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 23W-26W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-18N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE HEAVIEST WEATHER THIS EVENING IS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...SEE ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ALONG 28N TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W BRINGING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE
MEXICO/S TEXAS EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE E ACROSS THE GULF. DUE TO
THIS UPPER RIDGE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
GENERATED INLAND OVER THE SE US ARE MOVING OVER THE GULF WATERS
FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N84W
TO 24N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND A
SECOND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NEITHER ARE PRODUCING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO
CENTRAL CUBA AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER GUATEMALA IS
PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 16N W OF 76W AND N OF
14N W OF 82W INCLUDING JAMAICA...CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
S OF 11N FROM 80W-83W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF
THE SE US INTO OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 90/120 OF THE COAST N OF
29N IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER THE US AND AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA TO BEYOND 32N73W. THERE ARE A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...ONE CENTERED NEAR 31N63W GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N42W WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 23N42W TO 28N43W AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SOME ACTIVITY N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...SEE ABOVE. THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST CLEARLY SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF 54W
FROM THE ITCZ TO 31N.

$$
WALLACE





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