[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N37W 18N35W 13N32W
5N31W MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ON TOP OF AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ALONG
27N36W 22N36W 13N39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N61W 15N58W 7N57W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO COASTAL
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...AND THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS EL SALVADOR...AND
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DRAGGING THOSE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE WEST.

...THE ITCZ...

ALONG 10N/11N FROM THE AFRICA COAST TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9.5N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W/THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL AIR
CORRESPONDS TO THE TROUGH FROM 20N82W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N103W
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS PART
OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED NOW IN WESTERN MEXICO.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND REMNANT PRECIPITATION
HAVE MOVED INTO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N67W 14N70W...
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
TOWARD THE EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF HAITI. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EL SALVADOR TO THE WEST OF 90W.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING DRAGGED TO THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM CUBA INTO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 34N
BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. WEAK REMNANT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS HANGING ON IN THE AREA FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 27N36W 22N36W 13N39W IS ON
TOP OF AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE 24N37W 18N35W 13N32W
5N31W TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
MT





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