[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N30W 14N26W 4N25W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N
TO 13N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N45W 20N50W 16N51W
7N51W MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N76W...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 10N80W...AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST ABOUT 25 KT. PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
WEST OF THIS WAVE...MOST PROBABLY THE RESULT OF ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES AND PROCESSES OTHER THAN JUST THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 10N30W TO 12N46W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W...FROM 9N
TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
9N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W/THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM TO 90 NM RADIUS
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS MOVING THE WATERS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
A 90 NM RADIUS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 20N101W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS...
AND THE 20N101W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 27N TO 28N
BETWEEN WESTERN FLORIDA AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 30N70W TO 26N74W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N78W TO
17N86W TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP FROM HAITI TO THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES NEAR 17N66W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 70W IS SPREADING ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO THAT COVERED THE AREA FROM
MEXICO TO EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS THE WATERS
TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND
NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TO
COASTAL PANAMA INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 27N57W 25N61W 23N63W 20N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N66W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE 31N57W CYCLONIC CENTER AND WITHIN 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF IT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N28W TO 30N37W 28N38W
TO 24N46W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N45W TO 25N50W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N17W 22N20W TO 25N24W
WITHOUT ANY DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

$$
MT





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