[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA AT 6N11W TO 3N30W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 28W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N E OF 3W...AND FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-2S BETWEEN 40W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF BERMUDA PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
OVER THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
77W-81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD EXTENDS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO
DOT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS N OF BERMUDA NEAR 40N63W PRODUCING
STRONG SE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
THIS SAME HIGH IS PRODUCING UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FAR N AS MAINE AND AS FAR W AS
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
29N44W. A THIRD SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
38N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
45W-55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
28N30W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
FRENCH GUIANA AT 6N52W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER WEST
AFRICA NEAR 10N7W.

$$
FORMOSA






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