[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA AT 07N11W TO THE EQUATOR AT
23W THEN CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO 02S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
4S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 2N-2S
BETWEEN 8W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-1S
BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF BERMUDA PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW
GULF AND TEXAS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE E AND DOMINATE THE GULF OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
72W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO DOT THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N72W PRODUCING
STRONG SE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
THIS SAME HIGH IS PRODUCING UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FAR N AS NEW JERSEY AND AS FAR
W AS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N46W. A THIRD SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N37W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
GUYANA AT 8N59W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 5N30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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