[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 3N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
AT 19W TO 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
11W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 33N73W
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ENCOMPASSES FLORIDA
AND MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FRESH
TO STRONG E TO SE FLOW ACROSS GULF REGION AS AN EARLIER QSCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ALOFT...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO SRN MEXICO. AN AREA OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED OVER ERN TEXAS ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
INLAND N OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF AREA MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG
SURFACE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE TYPICAL AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUE THROUGH FRI AND AS A
RESULT... THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE
BASIN... WITH MOSTLY SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS N CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
ADDITION...LOW- TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION...MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN MAINLY N
OF 16N. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N73W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE W ATLC AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 20-25 KT ELY
WINDS FROM 18N-27N W OF 60W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS OBSERVED. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ELY FLOW FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC TO 25N
BETWEEN 65W-75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED S
OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N25W. A BELT OF FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS
IS BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER AFRICA. ALOFT...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N38W THEN ALONG 30N TO 30N60W
AND WESTWARD TO A CLOSED LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N73W NE OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER TROUGHING ALONG 30N SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPPING THE REGION NEAR 32N58W TO
BERMUDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

$$
HUFFMAN




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