[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 22W TO
04S33W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 8W-10W AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TO
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. STRONG TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND DRY LINE COMPLEX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN N
OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW GULF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE GULF. GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR BROKEN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH MOSTLY SW
TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A BAND OF BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS TO HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO STRONG IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE WIND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE TYPICAL AREA NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN INDUCED BY THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. AN AREA OF
MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS JUST  N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N72W.
THIS HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT WITH 20-25 KT ELY WINDS
FROM 20N-27N W OF 63W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W TO 28N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THEN TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF 25N W
OF 55W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 25N51W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-40W. ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF
23N. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 5N28W.

$$
DGS




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