[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 1N17W 2N29W 1N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W EXTENDING TO 1S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 1W-5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 5N BETWEEN 7W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 41W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N94W TO 25N90W TO THE
W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FAR W GULF...WHERE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS
INCREASING. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N BETWEEN 91W-93W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND E GULF...AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SE
CONUS FROM A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
34N69W...ARE CURRENTLY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. THE FLOW AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN E TO SE WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF...WITH E WINDS UP TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N69W IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE NE TO E SURFACE WINDS UP
TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS ARE
ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-76W. ALSO...UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO 29N54W TO
32N52W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF A 75-85 KT UPPER LEVEL WIND
SPEED MAXIMUM LOCATED SW OF THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. TO THE
W OF THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N69W
ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. DURING THE
NEXT DAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
AND BE LOCATED NEAR 32N71W AS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH AT
27/0000 UTC. FARTHER TO THE E...SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N28W TO 29N24W
TO 32N19W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 18W-25W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 10N13W TO 6N26W TO 2N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
COHEN




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