[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W
TO 1S35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 18W-21W...FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 21W-24W...AND
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO
MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
GENERATE SW SURFACE FLOW OVER THE THE ENTIRE GULF AND FAIR
WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WITH 20 KT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER E CUBA
NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-82W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER
PANAMA AND INLAND N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 73W-78W. FRESH
TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT... EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO N OF HISPANIOLA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N67W 26N70W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 28N44W
27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT THE
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DRIFTS E
WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA



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