[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W TO THE EQUATOR AT 18W TO
3S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-1S BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG 24N80W 26N90W 27N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 88W-98W. FIRES OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO...TOGETHER WITH 5-10 KT SE
WINDS...ARE PRODUCING SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE W
GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE FRONT W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT...SOUTHERLY
SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF
26N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF
12N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 68W-76W TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W. THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IS FURTHER S ALONG 32N26W 29N30W
28N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF
45W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 25W-45W. A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S
OF 20N W OF 40W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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