[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 22W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5S BETWEEN 26W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A POST FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST
OF TEXAS AN IS ALONG 30N93W 26N97W. 15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE W OF
THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 86W-93W. ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA S OF
28N...HAS 15-20 KT SE WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF BETWEEN 82W-93W. EXPECT...A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N AND E OF 66W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N57W
28N60W 26N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. A 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N36W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS S TO 15N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W
TO 7N60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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