[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
20W AND EXTENDING ALONG 3S30W AND INTO E BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 12W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION REMAINS S OF THE
EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG THE ERN U.S.
SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT WWD INTO A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 30N84W AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 29N85W
TO 28N90W WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND ACROSS EXTREME SRN TEXAS NEAR
27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ERN GULF WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS. S OF THE FRONTS W
OF 85W...SE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW OF UP TO 20 KTS AND GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED. THE SELY SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAIN STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N W OF 77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR UNDER WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS IS LIMITING AND PRECIPITATION TO ISOLATED SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N76W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH A THIN
ROPE CLOUD IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT REMAINS N OF 32N. AT 2100
UTC...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N79W S-SW
ACROSS THE SERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO
DIMINISH. FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC...
AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 65W TO NEAR
PUERTO RICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W-67W. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N27W AND IT IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N28W IS PROVIDING NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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