[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
24W AND EXTENDING INTO E BRAZIL NEAR 6S36W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...S
LOUISIANA CONTINUING SW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST N OF CORPUS
CHRISTI THEN W ACROSS N MEXICO. WHILE A LACK OF PRECIPITATION
IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF...IT WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVER THE FAR N GULF WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS AND THEN
BEGIN TO STALL. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
OBSERVED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS E OF 90W. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO E OF THE
FRONT N OF THE REGION ACROSS SW ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
INTO THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 96W IS
PROVIDING THE GULF WITH W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW WATERS
N OF 25N W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM S OF HAITI TO THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR E
PANAMA. THE NATURAL FLOW INT HE SW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THIS
REMNANT TROUGH IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ANY ACTIVITY IS
SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. E TO SE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER ERN MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E-NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE USUAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE SURFACE WIND PATTERNS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES
TO FLATTEN PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM 32N52W
TO 27N60W. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND
IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM 25N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 66W-73W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE W ATLC BESIDES FOR SWLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT N
OF 30N W OF 75W ENHANCED BY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE E
CONUS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 25N33W. AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND THE ENTIRE E
ATLC...A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AZORES PROVIDING
NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE




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