[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
18W AND EXTENDING TO 4S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W-8W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 10W-25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
1S-5S BETWEEN 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS AT 26N74W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 88W IS RESULTING IN 20-25
KT WINDS WHILE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE TEXAS COAST W OF 95W.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 87W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 92W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E GULF. EXPECT...A COLD
FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND OVER S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 65W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT...
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N74W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT FURTHER E EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N39W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
24N37W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS ALONG 9N15W 8N60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND
EXTEND FROM 32N52W TO 25N61W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA




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