[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 26W AND EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-1S E OF 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 13W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. SOME RESIDUAL SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N AND E OF 88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 15 KT S WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE W
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA
ALONG 20N74W 13N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST OF N NICARAGUA. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER N HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COASTS
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF
65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N VENEZUELA TO BEYOND PUERTO
RICO. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
PERSIST AND DRIFT W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS FROM 32N62W TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N37W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N45W 20N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 42W-45W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 52W-70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N46W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
ALONG 10N15W 5N52W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND
FROM 32N57W TO N OF HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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