[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N14W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 19W AND EXTENDING TO 3S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N BETWEEN
14W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SRN MEXICO ALONG 30N84W
25N88W 19N92W. STRONG NLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A 1036 MB HIGH BUILDING S FROM
THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS AROUND 1200
UTC SHOWED WINDS TO BE UP TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE WRN GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS HAVE ELEVATED SEAS TO 10 FT
ACROSS THE NW GULF BUOYS AND LIKELY A FEW FT HIGHER OVER THE SW
GULF WHERE THE FETCH IS GREATER AND WINDS ARE LIKELY STRONGER.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AS WIDESPREAD STABILITY IS OBSERVED IN THE MID-LEVELS...
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING SW FROM THE TAMPA
BAY REGION AREA INTO THE FAR E/CENTRAL GULF. THE AIR IS
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER W OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE
50'S/60'S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40'S F OVER THE NRN GULF COAST
(COMPARED WITH 70'S/80'S F TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70 F OVER
MUCH OF THE SE GULF AND SRN FLORIDA). THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY W CENTERED ALONG 68W N OF
14N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-70W. FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ENHANCED BY VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THE RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
RECENT QSCAT DATA AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE WEAK TROUGH MENTIONED IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE W-NW MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA...WHILE A STRONG FRONT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
MONDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS ERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE W ATLC WATERS
N OF 29N AND THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT
FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO 30N61W
CONTINUING SW AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 25N69W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 31N
BETWEEN 57W-61W. FARTHER E...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N31W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE
S OVER THE E ATLC. STRONG NELY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 25W. OVER THE
DEEP TROPICS...THE MAIN FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 10N20W. ONLY ASSOCIATED EFFECTS EXIST ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY
WHERE UPPER SLY FLOW AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS
GENERATING AND SPREADING MOISTURE N FROM THE ITCZ S OF 14N
BETWEEN 45W-57W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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