[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 19W THEN ALONG 3S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN
42W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AS OF 1500
UTC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE GULF WITH NW WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SERN LOUISIANA SW TO JUST
E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER FAIR SKIES. ALSO OF NOTE...
LIMITED VISIBILITY AND HAZY CONDITIONS...THE RESULT OF SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SRN MEXICO...ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 23N BETWEEN 92W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 65W WITH
A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WEST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS N OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-68W. THIS IS THE ONLY
NOTABLE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN AS UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC/WRN
CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF
15-20 KT...OBSERVED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...ARE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DRIER AIRMASS RIDING ALONG WITH A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N74W HAS SETTLED INTO THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W AND STRETCHES ALONG
30N63W 26N70W THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR
ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NW BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. TO THE EAST...A WEAK...BUT
PERSISTENT...1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N41W. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N39W 27N37W 24N39W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A
NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS E OF 32W. IN
THE TROPICS...A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLC
S OF 10N BETWEEN 42W-56W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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