[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE AT 28/1500 UTC IS NEAR 40.4N
67.7W...OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...SOUTHWEST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH 21 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA FROM 41W-46W BETWEEN 64W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR
14N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 53W-55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 11N45W 11N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-33W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 38W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 10-15 KT NE WINDS COVER THE GULF N OF
THE TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 92W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF A LINE FROM
N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N85W 18N93W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE OVER TO THE SE GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA
FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 71W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 82W-88W. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N56W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF
15N...AND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W. THE TAIL
END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N66W 29N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
30N-34N BETWEEN 62W-65W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N31W 24N40W 23N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1020 HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N28W. A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 32N9W 29N13W 30N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N AND W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 18N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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