[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR 37.3N
69.4W...OR ABOUT 275 MILES/440 KM SOUTH OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 480 MILES/780 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH 21 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 41N
BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 33N65W 31N66W 28N70W 25N73W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 19W AND 22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED DISORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM 15N
TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO TRINIDAD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N
BETWEEN 42W AND 65W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ...
ALONG 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A JET STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH 30 TO 45 KT...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND 32N74W. THE FAST WINDS SPEEDS OF 60 KT TO 80 KT
WINDS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N83W BEYOND 32N74W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON SIDE
OF 32N72W 23N83W 17N89W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE JET STREAM.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W
TO A 16N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO TRINIDAD. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS PUSHING WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 67W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE HISPANIOLA
CYCLONIC CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
14N78W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N77W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF
19N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE WATERS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 11.5N77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC ACCOMPANIES AN
80W RIDGE...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N47W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N31W TO
24N40W TO 23N51W. A 993 MB STORM CENTER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 37N42W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WERE FORECAST WITH THIS LOW
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE
THAT MARKS THE FRONT...31N33W 25N40W 22N50W 23N56W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO TRINIDAD. THE 51W/52W WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 40W.

$$
MT





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