[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 27/1800...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...480 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 550
MILES...885 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. KYLE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR.  A NORTHWARD
MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF KYLE'S
CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS RELOCATED ALONG 39W BASED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND
14N39W. THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17.5N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ...AND MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS
OBSERVED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 11N79W. AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM SE MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SE MEXICO APPEAR TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE
TWDEP.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N23W 11N32W 11N50W
9N63W. OUTSIDE FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF
AXIS BETWEEN 19W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN
18W-22W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
NE VENEZUELA WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS THE AREA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND
32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF BELIZE TODAY NEAR
18N88W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC.
ALOFT...UPPER NELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED OVER BELIZE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE
ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AT THE SAME TIME...THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N47W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE
CENTER OVER WEST AFRICA.  AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 31N32W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N41W.

$$
GR





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