[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE AT 27/1200 UTC IS NEAR 31.2N
69.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 295 MILES/475 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
KYLE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 33N TO 35N
BETWEEN 67W AND 69W WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS CUTTING ACROSS THE
TOPS OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN DISORGANIZED INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN
62W AND 69W. THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS FOR KYLE TO BECOME A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N48W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE INFRARED
IMAGERY IS NEAR 13N76W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND
76W...AND FROM THE GULF OF URABA TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ONLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
REMAINS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...
13N17W 12N32W 10N44W 6N57W ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN GUINEA TO SOUTHERN
SENEGAL SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
NOW FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N97W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH
OF 26N97W 24N90W 27N80W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS
THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION AND
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N76W...ORIGINATING WITH THE NORTH
CAROLINA TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N87W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 15N80W TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS.
SHOWERS ARE IN ONE SMALL BURST WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 21N69W
ABOUT 80 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS-T0-HONDURAS TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N45W TO A 20N48W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N51W. THE 44W/45W TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO
15N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W TO 27N44W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N34W TO
27N40W TO 26N50W 26N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WEST OF 45W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18W/19W
THROUGH 32N TO 25N.

$$
MT


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