[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE AT 27/0300 UTC IS NEAR
29.8N 69.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 320 MILES/515 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN AT LEAST -78C AND HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN REACHING 50000 FT
IN THIS AREA DURING THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE HOURS. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CENTER OF KYLE NOW IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS AROUND KYLE
HAVE INCREASED BY 10 KT SINCE THE 26/2100 UTC FORECAST/ADVISORY.
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS FOR KYLE TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N
TO 16N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N48W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
38W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY IS NEAR 13N75W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
73W AND 74W...AND INLAND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN
COLOMBIA AND JUST WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA POSSIBLY
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 91W AND
92W...AND SPREADING FROM MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N91W.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 11N20W 12N26W 12N41W 6N55W ALONG THE SURINAME BEYOND
6N60W IN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AFRICA FROM NORTHWESTERN
GUINEA TO SOUTHERN SENEGAL BETWEEN 15W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N97W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH
OF 25N97W 24N90W 27N80W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS
THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION AND
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N75W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
ORIGINATING WITH THE SOUTH CAROLINA CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N88W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN
GUATEMALA INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF BELIZE...AND OFF THE COAST
OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 86W
AND 87W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
IN HONDURAS FROM 14N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 15N80W TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE BURST ARE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N45W TO A 20N48W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N51W. THE 43W/44W TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W
TO 28N40W TO 27N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W TO 27N44W...AND DISSIPATING
ALONG 27N44W 28N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WEST
OF 40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18W/19W THROUGH
32N TO 25N.

$$
MT


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