[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 262359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.6N 68.7W OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING NNW
NEAR 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
KYLE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 65W-69W. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
180 NM E OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PER THE MIMIC
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM CIMSS. AN INVERTED-V SHAPE
IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD WITH THIS WAVE RESEMBLES A BROADER
INVERTED-V PATTERN THAN WITH THE WAVE ALONG 30W...WITH SOME
COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE MOVEMENT OF CLOUD
ELEMENTS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
POSITION CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS MOST OF
THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE INLAND OVER W VENEZUELA
AND NE COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 69W-76W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER WAVE AXIS N OF 15N AXIS IS DEPICTING WEAK
COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD THERE...WHERE
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 86W-91W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 84W-94W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 11N20W 11N30W 8N50W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 22W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 48W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM A 1020 MB
HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO
24N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING WLY FLOW. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA... THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N81W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SW
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO 29N75W TO
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20
KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N24W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 27N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.
A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N49W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 18N14W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 12N50W. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

$$
FORMOSA




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