[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261201 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.0N 68.7W OR ABOUT 435 NM
SSW OF BERMUDA AT 26/1200 UTC MOVING NNW NEAR 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KYLE CONTINUES EXPERIENCE SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FLARE UP
CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
22N63W TO 28N68W. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SATURDAY.

THE NON-TROPICAL 995 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE DANGER GRAPHIC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE N
PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
26W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
BROAD AREA OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
POSITION CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS MOST OF
THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA
AND NE COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS NO LONGER
EFFECTING THE ATLC BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N15W 14N26W 12N34W 13N43W 9N52W
9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM
N OF THE ITCZ E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER SENEGAL AFRICA. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E US AND GULF N OF 25N EXTENDING
INTO THE W ATLC. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N GULF FROM
CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG 25N89W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE
FROM TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 24N87W OVER S FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES
INCLUDING S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN....AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
N GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF
85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN/CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER PUERTO RICO COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE W ATLC FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 57W-64W. THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
KEEPING THE AREA FROM 65W-85W REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE W ATLC THIS MORNING IS T.S. KYLE...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE DEEP LAYERED OVER THE E US AND THE N
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 72W DRAWING THE
DRY STABLE AIR FROM THE N GULF ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 29N W OF 74W AND INTO THE 995 MB LOW INLAND OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W THEN
WEAKENING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT S OF 27N INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR VERO BEACH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OVER T.S. KYLE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER PUERTO RICO TO 32N63W COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. THE WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THAT WAS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS S TO 17N BETWEEN 38W-58W WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG 32N40W TO 29N49W TO 29N53W WEAKENING AS
IT CONTINUES NW TO BEYOND 32N57W AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S AND E OF THE
FRONT E OF 53W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF
30W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 31N24W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 31N FROM 17W-24W.
THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 42W
ALONG 16N AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND FURTHER N AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

$$
WALLACE/AC



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