[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 68.3W OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1035 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 25/2100 UTC
MOVING NORTH AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS
/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KYLE IS
EXPERIENCING SOUTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR BUT IS STILL FORECAST TO
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE AFTER A FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 62W-68W.

A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 65 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS LOW IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
TONIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL...HOWEVER TIME IS LIMITED. REGARDLESS...
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST. OUTER RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING
ONSHORE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO VIRGINIA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
LOOP OF MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF
THE AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 24W-29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS...AND COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
NEW LOCATION FOR THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS IT HAS ALMOST NO SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR GENERALLY LIMITING CLOUD
FORMATION AND SHOWERS...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS S MEXICO TO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 91W-94W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 9N30W 8N60W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 11W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N80W 22N90W 20N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE N
GULF N OF 27N WITH 15-20 KT NLY WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF 27N. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE S
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 71W-74W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING NLY FLOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 59W-62W.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SW CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO 28N73W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W. A 1014 MB
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N23W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 25N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 58W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N24W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N36W.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

$$
FORMOSA




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