[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT
PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT ALL ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N40W 8N46W 7N50W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
59W AND 62W. AT LEAST ONE STRONG CELL OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TOP
OF TRINIDAD NOW. SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
FROM HAITI TO VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
DISSIPATING SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W IN
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
IS ALONG 91W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN AFRICA AT 15W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 31N75W
TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF THE LINE
THROUGH 31N61W 22N75W...IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N84W 30N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS AND WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 28N. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 17N TO 27N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NICARAGUA CARIBBEAN SEA COAST.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 60W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
14N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PRECIPITATION NOT RELATED TO THE
62W TROPICAL WAVE ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
25N43W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND
60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 32N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N23W
TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT





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