[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
SEEN NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE THE TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-71W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-87W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 85W-89W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 09N30W 11N40W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 20W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N81W 28N86W 27N91W 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 80W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. 10-15 NLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT...WHILE 10 KT ELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 22N98W...THAT DOMINATES THE W GULF W OF 90W. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA E OF 90W.
EXPECT... THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N64W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 59W-63W.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N64W, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N49W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N15W 27N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N47W...AND AT 23N40W. A LARGE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. TWO UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 15N54W...
AND AT 12N28W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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