[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171230
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W/20W S OF
19N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED E OF
25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
21W-24W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PREDOMINATELY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMMS
DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR 22N63W MOVING IN TANDEM
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W S OF
20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-16N
BETWEEN 70W-78W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 92W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N30W 10N55W 10N62W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 30N81W 27N84W 24N92W 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 94W-97W. 10-15 NLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...WHICH DOMINATES
THE W GULF W OF 90W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E
OF 90W.  EXPECT... LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER
HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N84W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N66W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W, A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1024
MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N62W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
31N63W...30N55W...AND AT 25N42W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N46W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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