[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 13N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 20N59W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-20N
BETWEEN 50W-58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCT...AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS.  THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 70W-74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 73W-83W.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF BELIZE TO 06N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 08N40W 11N62W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 10W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
A 1016 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N96W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO ALONG 21N97W
25N103W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN
93W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W...WHICH DOMINATES THE W GULF W OF
90W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W.  EXPECT... LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND THE LOW DISSIPATES. ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS
SEEN ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR...NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF
67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N
AND E OF 65W. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. A 1010 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH TO 26N58W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. THREE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N59W...23N56W...AND AT
27N44W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE
WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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