[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AND PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. INVERTED-V
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 79W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 8N46W 11N53W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 30N90W 27N93W 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 93W-98W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W AND
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N89W...WHICH DOMINATES MOST OF
THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NORTH COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 72W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 67W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N77W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OF 13N AND EAST OF 70W.
EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. A
1010 MB LOW IS FURTHER EAST NEAR 33N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO 28N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
62W-64W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH TO
25N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AROUND 25N47W...WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AROUND 30N24W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N30W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N EAST OF
50W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
AC/MRF




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net