[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 10N-20N WITH A 1012 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AND PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
64W-70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ERN
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS BENEATH STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 8N-19N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 10N27W 9N31W 9N48W 10N53W
9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF A LINE FROM 10N21W TO 6N29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W TO 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF A LINE FROM
CAMERON LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE ERN US SEABOARD IN THE W ATLC NEAR
34N75W AND EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N89W AND IS
PROVIDING A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
NW GULF AND N OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB
HIGH IN THE W ATLC TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
WATERS. S-SE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W
AND COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
WHERE UPPER TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS SRN
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
EXTENDING NE OFF THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 8N-19N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 69W...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
TRANQUIL THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE ERN US SEABOARD
IN THE W ATLC NEAR 34N75W AND EXTENDS RIDGING W OF 63W TO OVER
THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS ACROSS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N TO NORTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 50W-70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS DRIFTING NW ALONG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN E ATLC UPPER LOW NEAR
30N24W THROUGH A CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW NEAR 25N46W CONTINUING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 17N56W...NE OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N27W WITH AN INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SURINAME SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR
15N55W SEPARATING THE UPPER HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE
ATLC N OF 22N E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 34N25W. A
WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N30W AND IS PRODUCING
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 24W-31W. A SECOND
NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 31N W OF 70W TO ACROSS THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
31N74W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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