[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS DOWNGRADED AT 14/0600 UTC TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.4N 93.9W
AT 14/0600 UTC WHICH IS INLAND OVER ARKANSAS MOVING NNE AT
21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VERY LITTLE OF IKE REMAINS INT HE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW ARE BEING DRAWN S OVER
THE W GULF W OF OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N W OF 94W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 10N-20N WITH A 1013 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED
BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 41W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WITH A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 60W-66W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS BENEATH STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH IS
ADVECTING UPPER CLOUDS A WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 16N WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N16W 10N21W 6N41W 7N52W 6N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 22W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
REMNANT EFFECTS OF IKE ARE OVER THE W GULF...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TENNESSEE
AND AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N85W. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING GENERALLY
STRONG EASTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF E OF 90W WITH MOSTLY
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE OBSERVED OVER THE AREA N OF
26N E OF 90W AND S OF 26N E OF 93W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND E
GULF. S-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 78W. AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N73W COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO W TROPICAL ATLC. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 1N W OF 74W TO INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 28N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 29N70W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W
DRIFTING NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N67W TO 28N72W. A
BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N48W WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N27W. AN UPPER HIGH IS INT
HE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N27W
WITH A SECOND INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO NEAR 14N50W SEPARATING THE THIS
UPPER HIGH FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N47W WITH A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM 30N-34N W
OF 65W TO THE US E COAST AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 31N72W.

$$
WALLACE




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