[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 94.8W AT 14/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA MOVING N-NE AT 18 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS ERN
TEXAS/WRN LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 92W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 8N-21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED
BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE...A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REGIME IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS NE VENEZUELA S OF 11N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
73W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N17W 10N21W 8N24W 7N44W 8N50W
8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
13W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 23W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ARE ACROSS THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO AS T.S. IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ERN
TENNESSEE AND AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
PRODUCING GENERALLY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E
OF 93W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OBSERVED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN
GULF. S-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W AND EXTENDS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF
76W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W
AND EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
69W-77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING UNDER
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INVERTED UPPER TROUGHING ENTERS THE FAR SW ATLC FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N70W TO 23N74W AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
25N46W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE ATLC N OF 22N
FROM 40W EAST TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL
ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 15N30W AND IS
GENERATING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW ALONG
43W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 65W
AND N OF 27N W OF 75W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A
1018 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N46W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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