[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
IKE MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT. IKE IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 13/1800 UTC. IKE IS CENTERED
NEAR 31.6N 95.4W AT 13/1800 UTC OR JUST SW OF PALESTINE TEXAS
MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN
TEXAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS
WELL INLAND...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE SURGE
EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST FROM
27N-34N BETWEEN 93W-97W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 21W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 18W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 41W FROM 07N-20N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. 1013 MB LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 16N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 58W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 72W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 8N50W 7N60W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN  27W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IKE IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER E TEXAS MOVING N. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY TODAY HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 35N88W IS
PRODUCING NELY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 90W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 90W.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
75W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N65W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
AREA EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-90W WHERE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 28N68W 22N74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 70W-72W. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. A PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 35W-55W
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N48W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N30W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC W OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N27N.

$$
FORMOSA







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