[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
IKE MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT.
HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 95.1W AT 13/1100 UTC OR
JUST NORTHEAST OF KINGWOOD TEXAS MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM
OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 27N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND SW
LOUISIANA. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL AREAS EXPECT TO THE S
WHERE IT IS LIMITED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 20W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION.
ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. MID LEVEL LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 16N.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N38W TO 18N45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 60W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE...STRAIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 57W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W/71W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALTHOUGH THE AREA LACKS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 8N23W 6N35W 6N45W 5N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
FROM 28W-31W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE ITCZ E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM
37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS HURRICANE IKE THAT MADE
LANDFALL DURING THE NIGHT...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OUTER
RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IKE IN THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW AND A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE E GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS
MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SPREADING W AS IKE MOVES FURTHER
INLAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 75W-84W
WITH NORTHERLY UPPER WINDS W OF 84W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W SOUTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. THIS COMBINED IS INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA TO JAMAICA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W.
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHES OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W TO AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE E ALONG 28N71W TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 66W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BENIGN UPPER
LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N49W. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE
S IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N58W GENERATING SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N47W TO 20N53W AND ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 60W. A SECOND BENIGN UPPER
LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 27N31W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S
OVER NW AFRICA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS IN
THE E TROPICAL ATLC SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE AGAIN REIGNS OVER THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W AND N
OF 27N W OF 65W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A 1019 MB
HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 29N45W.

$$
WALLACE






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