[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 94.7W AT 13/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 17 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING
NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE EYE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE GALVESTON AREA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL AREAS EXPECT
TO THE S WHERE IT IS LIMITED. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON
ISLAND. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH
NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE
EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED
TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 19W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION
AND NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 41W/42W S OF 20N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. MID LEVEL LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 16N.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE...STRAIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM
10N-19N BETWEEN 55W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 69W/70W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THE AREA LACKS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 6N27W 9N36W 10N56W 10N62W. A
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
25W-28W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
THE ITCZ FROM 20W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON HURRICANE IKE THAT IS MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IKE ARE S AND E OF THE STORM COVERING MOST OF
LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS IN THE
GULF WATERS N OF 23N W OF 88W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS DOMINATED BY NE UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED OVER
SE NORTH CAROLINA. THE E GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING SPREADING W AS IKE MOVES FURTHER INLAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-83W WITH N UPPER WINDS W
OF 83W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W S UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS COMBINED IS
INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO JAMAICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W
OF 79W. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHES OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N69W
TO A LARGER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E ALONG 28N70W ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOST TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 66W-69W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N50W. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE S IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N56W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
14N44W TO 22N55W AND ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 58W. A SECOND BENIGN UPPER LOW IS
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 27N32W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER NW
AFRICA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH AGAIN REIGNS OVER THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W AND N OF 27N
W OF 65W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net