[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 12/1800 UTC IS NEAR 27.4N 93.1W
OR ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 957 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IKE IS NOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD. THIS WIND FIELD HAS TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM FROM THE CENTER AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 105 NM FROM THE CENTER. DANGEROUS
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 90W-94W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-97W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED INTO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC ALONG
17W S OF 14N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE CLOUD MASS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 12W-23W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 12W-24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
15 KT. SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
15N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN
36W-50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V TURNING IS NOTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 121N-16N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTAINS SOME ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF
JOSEPHINE THAT WAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AT 14N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N17W 8N30W 11N42W
10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
30W-36W,,,AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IKE IS PRESENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MOVING TOWARDS THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY ALONG
THE COAST. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE E GULF E OF 85W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IKE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR
31N97W INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW OF IKE. EXPECT IKE TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT AND MOVE TO INLAND E TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NE FLOW
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W DUE TO IKE. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N74W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 70W-75W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 27N69W 21N72W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 66W-71W. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N74W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER
W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 10W-50W MOVING
W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 15N30N.

$$
FORMOSA







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