[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120618 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

AMENDED FOR THE 12/0600 UTC POSITION FOR HURRICANE IKE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 12/0600 UTC IS NEAR 26.4N 91.1
WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES/650 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS...AND ABOUT 300 MILES/485 KM SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N
TO 28 BETWEEN 87W AND 93W...AND AT THE END OF A RAINBAND IN
WESTERN GUATEMALA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N91W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 31N IN MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W POSSIBLY NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE 25N35W 10N49W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 66W/67W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
67W. SOME OF THE CELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS EAST OF
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 14N FROM NICARAGUA
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

9N14W 8N27W 11N34W 10N40W 11N47W TO TRINIDAD AND NEARBY VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W...FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 42W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA WEST OF HAITI. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 19N
CROSSING PUERTO RICO TO THE VENEZUELA COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. SOME
OF THE CELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W
SOUTH OF 11N...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH COLOMBIA AND ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM TO
40 NM RADIUS OF 7.5N76W JUST EAST OF THE BORDER WITH PANAMA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N72W IN THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI NEAR 18N74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 35N44W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N54W...TO
28N64W 26N70W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W TO
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI NEAR 18N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH SOUTH OF 28N. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT
OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO TO 26N.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 15N45W TO 10N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND
60W...IN AN AREA OF WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 25N35W 10N49W TROUGH. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST
OF 18N60W 13N53W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN
ALGERIA...ACROSS MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 18N18W.

$$
MT





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