[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Sep 11 22:19:46 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KLCH 120318 PAA
HLSLCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...
.AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY. ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265
MILES FROM THE CENTER..
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS
956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT POINTS
AND HEADLANDS ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING FROM 6 TO
8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
TXZ215-120930-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTY:
JEFFERSON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY BY NOON ON FRIDAY...CRESTING
TO AROUND 20 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. BATTERING WAVES ATOP THE HIGH
WATER WILL CAUSE FURTHER DAMAGE.
THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW.
AT THESE WATER LEVELS...THE SEAWALL IN PORT ARTHUR WILL BE
OVERTOPPED...BY ABOUT 6 FEET...CAUSING EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF THE
CITY OF PORT ARTHUR.
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 73 BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR AND WINNIE
WILL HAVE STORM SURGE FLOODING. FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG
HILLEBRANDT AND TAYLOR BAYOUS BETWEEN FANNETT AND LA BELLE.
ALL ROADS IN SABINE PASS WILL BE FLOODED. HIGHWAY 73/87 BETWEEN
PORT ARTHUR AND BRIDGE CITY WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL.
INUNDATION LIKELY!
ENTIRE COASTAL CITIES AND TOWNS WILL BE INUNDATED. FULL RECOVERY
WILL TAKE MONTHS IF NOT YEARS. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL NOT ONLY EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE BUT WASH OUT SOLID ROAD AND BRIDGE STRUCTURES. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION WILL TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH
ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE DECREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 30 TO 40
PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM
80 TO 90 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AS IS THE CASE DURING ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEM...ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS WILL SEE FLASH FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER NECHES RIVER UP
THROUGH BEAUMONT DUE TO THE STORM SURGE.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.
$$
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-120930-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM EAST TO WEST
TOMORROW NIGHT.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR WATER SPOUTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.
$$
LAZ051>054-120930-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING PARISHES:
CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR CAMERON PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED.
FOR VERMILION PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14
INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF ERATH AND DELCAMBRE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PARISH IS UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.
FOR IBERIA PARISH:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THOSE LIVING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 675. THE REMAINDER OF THE PARISH
IS UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.
FOR SAINT MARY:
VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THOSE LIVING SOUTH OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY INCLUDING CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT AND
SOUTH OF THE RAILROAD IN FRANKLIN. SHELTER HAS BEEN SET UP IN
FRANKLIN FOR EVACUEES. THOSE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEEK SHELTER.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
CAMERON:
STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...CRESTING BETWEEN 14 AND 18 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BATTERING WAVES ATOP THE HIGH WATER WILL CAUSE
FURTHER DAMAGE. MOST OF CAMERON PARISH WILL BE INUNDATED.
THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW. THESE WATER LEVELS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE RITA. LA 82 AND LA 27 WILL BE UNDER WATER.
AS MUCH AS EIGHT TO TEN FEET OF WATER WILL COVER THE STREETS IN
DOWNTOWN CAMERON.
LOW LYING AREAS OF GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
FLOODING. SOME ROADS COULD SEE 6 TO 7 FEET OF WATER OVER THEM.
VERMILION...IBERIA AND ST.MARY:
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE...FROM AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS IBERIA AND
ST. MARY PARISHES...TO AROUND 12 FEET ACROSS VERMILION PARISH.
THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW. THESE WATER LEVELS WILL BE COMPARABLE
TO HURRICANE RITA.
FOR VERMILION PARISH...MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY WILL BE FLOODED...INCLUDING INTRACOASTAL CITY AND PECAN
ISLAND. FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR UP TO HIGHWAY 335...AFFECTING
THE COMMUNITIES OF COW ISLAND...FORKED ISLAND...ESTHER...HENRY...
AND DELCAMBRE.
FOR IBERIA PARISH...MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF LA 14 AND US 90 WILL
EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING...CUTTING OFF WEEKS ISLAND.
ACROSS ST. MARY PARISH...BURNS POINT...CYPREMORT POINT...AND MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL FLOOD ON FRIDAY.
ACROSS VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES...LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION
IS LIKELY!
ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES ...WILL
BE INUNDATED. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON
THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL
LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE
WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL BE CUTOFF...PERHAPS FOR MORE THAN A WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.
...WINDS...
CAMERON:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW MORNING...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH WILL BEGIN
BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
...BEFORE DECREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY NOON.
VERMILION/IBERIA/ST. MARY:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 55 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT REMAIN ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE INTO
THE MORNING SATURDAY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 10 TO 30
PERCENT FOR CAMERON PARISH...AND IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS
VERMILION...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 60 TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS SAINT MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES...AND INCREASES TO 70
TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
TO NEAR 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER VERMILION RIVER DUE TO TIDAL BACKUP.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.
$$
LAZ041-TXZ201-216-120930-
/O.CON.KLCH.HI.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080913T0900Z/
CALCASIEU-HARDIN-ORANGE-
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND PARISH:
CALCASIEU...HARDIN...ORANGE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS IN CALCASIEU PARISH FOR PEOPLE IN TRAVEL
TRAILERS...MOBILE HOMES...AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THIS INCLUDES
RESIDENTS WHO ARE HOME-BOUND...REQUIRING ELECTRICITY FOR THEIR
WELL-BEING. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE PARISH ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO LEAVE AS WELL.
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ORANGE COUNTY...
VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR HARDIN COUNTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
CALCASIEU:
STORM SURGE WILL MOVE UP THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL INTO LAKE CHARLES
LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL STORM TIDE LEVELS
OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORM SURGE WILL BE SLOW TO
RECEDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW
AFTER IKE MOVES INLAND.
AT THESE LEVELS...COMMUNITIES ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER BASIN SUCH
AS DEATONVILLE...PORTIONS OF CARLYSS...SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
SULPHUR...AND PORTIONS OF WESTLAKE WILL EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE
FLOODING. AREAS WITHIN LAKE CHARLES NEAR THE I-10 AND I-210
BRIDGES...NEAR THE CIVIC CENTER...AND THE LAKE CHARLES BEACH WILL
EXPERIENCE FLOODING AS WELL. THIS FLOODING WILL BE COMPARABLE TO
THAT EXPERIENCED DURING HURRICANE RITA. ALSO FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG ANY BAYOUS IN WESTLAKE AND LAKE CHARLES. BLACK BAYOU TO THE
SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING AS WELL.
ORANGE:
STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP INTO SABINE LAKE. THIS
IS FORECAST TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING UP THE SABINE RIVER TO ORANGE
AND ANY CONNECTING BAYOUS...SUCH AS COW AND ADAMS BAYOUS IN ORANGE
COUNTY. THIS WILL INUNDATE BRIDGE CITY AND PORTIONS OF ORANGE. THE
STORM TIDE LEVEL AT RAINBOW BRIDGE IS FORECAST REACH FROM 10 TO 15
FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. AT LEAST 6 FEET IS FORECAST AT THE OLD
ORANGE RIVER GAGE AND THIS IS MAJOR FLOODING.
...WINDS...
CALCASIEU:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH
WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...INCREASING TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CALCASIEU PARISH COULD EXPERIENCE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH BY FRIDAY EVENING.
ORANGE AND HARDIN:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
BEGIN AROUND MID MORNING FRIDAY...INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BEFORE DECREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
CALCASIEU:
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 70 TO 80
PERCENT.
ORANGE AND HARDIN:
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS ORANGE AND
HARDIN COUNTIES RANGE FROM 80 TO 90 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
CALCASIEU:
AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
NEW RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AS IS THE CASE DURING
ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM...ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS WILL SEE
FLASH FLOODING.
AT THIS TIME MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER CALCASIEU
RIVER FROM THE SALT WATER BARRIER TO OLD TOWN BAY AND MODERATE
FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE WEST FORK OF THE CALCASIEU FROM HOUSTON
RIVER TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE CALCASIEU RIVER DUE TO TIDAL BACKUP.
ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST...ALSO DUE TO
A TIDAL BACKUP.
AT THIS TIME ALONG THE CALCASIEU RIVER...MAJOR FLOODING OF
RESIDENTIAL AREAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SALT WATER BARRIER. UPSTREAM
NEAR OLD TOWN BAY...WATER WILL COMPLETELY COVER GOOS FERRY ROAD
ALL THE WAY TO THE RIVER ROAD ENTRANCE. FLOOD WATER ENTERS LOWER
LEVELS OF SOME ELEVATED HOMES ON GOOS FERRY ROAD. FLOODING IS
EXPECTED IN WHITE OAK PARK. ALONG THE WEST FORK OF THE CALCASIEU
WATER LEVELS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE RITA. CYPRESS LAKE
DRIVE BECOMES IMPASSIBLE AND WATER IS UP TO A FEW HOMES ALONG THE
ROAD. PORTIONS OF SAM HOUSTON PARK ARE UNDER WATER.
ORANGE AND HARDIN:
AT THIS TIME MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT ORANGE ON THE SABINE
RIVER DUE TO THE STORM SURGE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER NECHES RIVER AS WELL AS THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR
SOUR LAKE.
OTHERWISE...AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AS IS THE CASE
DURING ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM...ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS
MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ON FRIDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.
$$
LAZ030-TXZ180>182-120930-
/O.CON.KLCH.TI.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080913T0900Z/
BEAUREGARD-JASPER-NEWTON-TYLER-
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND PARISH:
BEAUREGARD...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES...BLOWN DOWN TREES...AND
SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
BEGIN AROUND LATE MORNING FRIDAY...INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS 60 TO 80 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO
15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG THE SABINE RIVER
NEAR BON WIER IS EXPECTED AS WELL AS ALONG THE NECHES RIVER AND
VILLAGE CREEK. AS IS THE CASE DURING ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM...ANY AREA
THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.
$$
LAZ027>029-031>033-042>045-055-120930-
/O.CON.KLCH.TI.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080913T0900Z/
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-EVANGELINE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERNON-
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING PARISHES:
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERNON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES...BLOWN DOWN TREES...AND
SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DECREASING
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 60 PERCENT
ACROSS UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISH TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH.
...INLAND FLOODING...
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
FLOODING ALONG RIVERS...FLASH FLOODING WITH HEAVIER RAINBANDS.
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER
AS WELL AS THE VERMILION RIVER NEAR SURREY STREET IN LAFAYETTE.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER VERMILION
RIVER SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE DUE TO STORM SURGE TRAVELING UPSTREAM.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.
$$
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