[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 11/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N 88.8W
OR ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE NOW DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. THE WIND
FIELD HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM FROM
THE CENTER AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 100 NM FROM THE
CENTER. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 84W-91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
32W-34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-48W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 62W-64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N32W 8N50W 11N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 13W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IKE IS PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVING TOWARDS
TEXAS. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IKE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N101W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
W GULF W OF 93W. EXPECT IKE TO CHURN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THREATEN TEXAS WITH A LANDFALL FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEEDER BAND FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE COAST OF
BELIZE ALONG 23N84W 18N87W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LINE. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N AND E OF 67W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W OUTSIDE
OF IKE. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-73W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 78W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER W AFRICA ALONG 11W MOVING TOWARDS THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 62W-67W. A
SURFACE TROUGH... THE REMNANTS OF T.S.JOSEPHINE... IS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 23N60W 17N62W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS
OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 10W-40W
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF
75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 15N22N.

$$
FORMOSA





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