[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 11/1200 UTC IS NEAR 25.3N 88.0W
OR ABOUT 575 MILES...920 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 26.5 BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND
ABOUT 60 NM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE BANCO
CHINCHORRO TO 29N BETWEEN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA BETWEEN 70W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA AND 95W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N
TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ SHOWERS FROM
4N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED AT ALL
TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

9N14W 9N31W 9N43W 8N55W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 46W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WEST
AFRICA COAST FROM 5N TO 10N EAST OF 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 90W AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE COVERS THE AREA EAST
OF 94W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 20N
EAST OF 72W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 19N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 21N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 34N46W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N57W...TO
27N65W 24N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 21N66W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N
TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 12N59W
21N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
15N51W 18N55W 23N58W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF 18N60W 13N53W. THIS FLOW IS
RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN WESTERN ALGERIA...ACROSS MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA
TO 20N17W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 20N17W 27N30W. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N30W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 23N45W TO 13N45W. THE 41W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT




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