[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
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emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Sep 11 00:19:49 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KHGX 110519 PAA
HLSHGX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...IKE HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
.AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT
580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND IKE COULD BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS DROPPED TO 944 MB OR 27.88 INCHES.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE IKE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE OR UPPER
TEXAS COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THAT IKE SHOULD BEGIN
TO CURVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT IS NEARING THE COAST. IT IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHEN THIS CURVE WILL BEGIN. SO IT IS
CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO BE PREPARED SHOULD THE STORM MAKE LANDFALL
EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. AT ITS CURRENT PACE
THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MAKING LANDFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS JUST 48 HOURS AWAY AND THE AVERAGE ERROR
AT 48 HOURS IS WITHIN 90 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION THURSDAY.
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-120530-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT
580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
OUT 20 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS SHOULD BE COMPLETING PREPARATIONS FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. HURRICANE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE USUAL 36 HOUR LEAD TIME. THIS HAS BEEN DONE TO GIVE
MARINE INTERESTS MORE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 15 TO 22 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 10 TO 14 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES AND THE
SHORES OF GALVESTON BAY - 8 TO 12 FEET
...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RISING TO 10 TO 18 FEET AFTER 8
AM. AS THE STRONGER WINDS WITH THE EYE MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS... WINDS OF 100 TO 130 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 20 FEET FRIDAY AFTER NOON.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM.
$$
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-120530-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT
580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
RESIDENTS OF OAK ISLAND AND SMITH POINT FISHING COMMUNITIES ARE
BEING ASKED TO LEAVE AS ROADWAYS WILL BE SUBMERGED. RESIDENTS OF
CEDAR POINT AND WALKER SUBDIVISIONS IN BEACH CITY AND THOSE
LIVING SOUTH OF FM 1985 ARE ALSO BEING ASKED TO LEAVE.
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
THE COUNTY JUDGE HAS RECOMMENDED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOST
OF BRAZORIA COUNTY BEGINNING AT 8 AM THURSDAY. RESIDENTS ACROSS
THE COUNTY SHOULD CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL COUNTY OR CITY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A
SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION
FROM BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS
TO COMPLETION BY 10 AM THURSDAY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN AT 7 AM THURSDAY FOR WEST
GALVESTON ISLAND...JAMAICA BEACH...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...OMEGA
BAY...SAN LEON... BACLIFF...AND FREDDIESVILLE. VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR LOW-LYING AREAS IN
DICKINSON...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE SHORES...AND LA MARQUE. CITIZENS
SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASE
REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCHOOL CLOSINGS...THE FOLLOWING SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL BE CLOSED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH ISLAND...HITCHCOCK...SANTA
FE...CLEAR CREEK AND FRIENDSWOOD. THE FOLLOWING WILL BE CLOSED
STARTING MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GALVESTON...AND
DICKINSON. THE FOLLOWING WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY...LA
MARQUE...AND TEXAS CITY.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY WILL CEASE WATER SERVICE TO
THE PENINSULA AT 5 PM ON THURSDAY.
UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH HOSPITAL IN GALVESTON WILL
BEGIN A COMPLETE EVACUATION OF THE HOSPITAL FACILITIES AT 8 AM
THURSDAY.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS UNDERWAY FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE AND
WORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...
MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRES
PALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED IN
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.
THESE EVACUATIONS MUST BE COMPLETED BY 6 PM THURSDAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING A VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35 AND IN BAY CITY AND
VAN VLECK FOR THOSE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MANUFACTURED
HOMES THAT ARE NOT PROPERLY TIED DOWN. IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU
EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A PET CARRIER...LEASH...
VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET. IF YOU EVACUATE TO A
SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT A SEPARATE FACILITY.
BE SURE TO START YOUR EVACUATION WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS.
IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318. YOU SHOULD COME TO THE BAY CITY
SERVICE CENTER THURSDAY BEGINNING AT 9 AM OR KC HALL IN PALACIOS
AT 9 AM ON THURSDAY.
RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO
THE SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES
TO OPEN SHELTERS.
ALL SCHOOLS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WILL BE CLOSED ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL ALSO BE CLOSED ON MONDAY
SEPTEMBER 15TH.
WHARTON COUNTY:
WHARTON COUNTY OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGING WHARTON COUNTY CITIZENS
TO EVACUATE IF THEY LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...RV OR A FLOOD PRONE
AREA EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
FORT BEND COUNTY:
PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION HAS BEEN SUSPENDED ON FRIDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE FOLLOWING TIDE LEVELS ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE LEVELS ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN THESE LEVELS MAY BE INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY FOR THE GALVESTON BAY REGION.
TIDE LEVELS WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TIDE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND
VARIATIONS OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF 5 TO 10 FEET MORE
OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 10 TO 20 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 11 TO 20 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES AND THE
SHORES OF GALVESTON BAY - 8 TO 15 FEET
TIDE TIMES
LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIMES EXPECTED WATER MAX PEAK SURGE LEVELS
MORGANS POINT... 8-11 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 2:50 PM. 4.2 FEET.
FRI 2:52 PM. 6.1 FEET.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE... 9-14 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 10:34 AM. 2.0 FEET.
FRI 10:36 AM. 4.0 FEET.
EAGLE POINT... 8-14 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 8:23 AM. 2.5 FEET.
FRI 8:25 AM. 5.5 FEET.
PORT BOLIVAR... 9-14 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 12:24 PM. 3.5 FEET.
FRI 4:45 AM. 5.0 FEET.
FRI 1:52 PM. 7.0 FEET.
SAT 4:52 AM. 9.0 FEET.
GALVESTON CHANNEL... 11-13 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 4:29 AM. 3.4 FEET.
THU 12:10 PM. 4.9 FEET.
FRI 4:31 AM. 6.5 FEET.
FRI 1:38 PM. 7.5 FEET.
SAT 4:38 AM. 11.0 FEET.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER... 11-13 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 3:23 AM. 3.7 FEET.
THU 11:04 AM. 5.2 FEET.
FRI 3:25 AM. 6.8 FEET.
FRI 12:32 PM. 7.3 FEET.
SAT 3:32 AM. 11.4 FEET.
JAMAICA BEACH... 10-13 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 7:07 AM. 2.9 FEET.
THU 2:48 PM. 3.7 FEET.
FRI 7:09 AM. 5.1 FEET.
FRI 4:16 PM. 7.1 FEET.
SAT 7:16 AM. 8.1 FEET.
SAN LUIS PASS... 10-15 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 4:20 AM. 2.4 FEET.
THU 12:01 PM. 3.9 FEET.
FRI 4:22 AM. 5.4 FEET.
FRI 1:29 PM. 6.3 FEET.
SAT 4:29 AM. 10.0 FEET.
FREEPORT... 13-20 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 3:45 AM. 3.1 FEET.
THU 11:26 AM. 4.9 FEET.
FRI 3:47 AM. 5.1 FEET.
FRI 12:54 PM. 6.0 FEET.
SAT 3:54 AM. 13.1 FEET.
PORT O CONNOR... 10-17 FEET EARLY SAT MORNING
THU 9:29 AM. 3.1 FEET.
FRI 10:15 AM. 6.0 FEET.
NOTE: TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM MEAN LOWER LOW WATER
...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BY 2 PM ON FRIDAY WINDS OF 40 TO 60
MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...WINDS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE NEARING
25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED MAKING ELEVATED ROADWAYS POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 8 PM FRIDAY NEAR THE EYEWALL WHICH IS
FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY.
IN CLOSE TO THE EYE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO
MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF
UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL.
ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS
AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE
LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE
BUILDINGS
WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SWAYING.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.
NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER
POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS
FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY
DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM
SIZED TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE
UPROOTED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT.
LIVESTOCK LEFT OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW
LIVESTOCK DEATHS ARE LIKELY.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
AS THE STORM NEARS THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY. REMEMBER THE INNERMOST ROOM WITH
THE GREATEST NUMBER OF WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE YOU WITH SOME SHELTER. DO NOT GO NEAR WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 5 AM.
$$
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