[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/1800 UTC IS NEAR 24.2N 85.8W
OR ABOUT OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 395 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
AND IKE COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS NOW A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES. EXPECT IKE TO BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR 15N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 MN OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N40W 7N60W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 19W-21W...FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 26W-34W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 26W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IKE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF CUBA AND IS MOVING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO IKE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR
25N104W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
EXPECT IKE TO CHURN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THREATEN TEXAS
WITH A LANDFALL SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN OVER W CUBA. A FEEDER BAND IS
OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W-86W
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
15N AND E OF 73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W OUTSIDE OF IKE. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1025 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N31W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 63W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH...
THE REMNANTS OF T.S.JOSEPHINE... IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 21N55W 13N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A
PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM
15N-25N BETWEEN 10W-40W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE
IS N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR
15N22N.

$$
FORMOSA





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