[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 85.3W
OR ABOUT 145 MILES/230 KM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT
430 MILES...695 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N
TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N BETWEEN 79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVANA CUBA
REPORTED 2.74 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT
10/0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND
53W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT MAY
BE RELATED TO THE WAVE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE ARE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 8N33W 9N37W 8N48W 8N51W 7N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 31N EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 19N103W 25N101W BEYOND 31N98W. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IN UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE AND THE MEXICO RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM 20N80W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
FROM HURRICANE IKE ALSO COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ONE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ONE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N50W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 29N59W TO A THIRD CENTER NEAR 25N68W TO 22N69W
AND 20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N9W IN MOROCCO
TO 27N10W...THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 27N10W TO 24N20W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N32W TO ANOTHER CENTER NEAR
20N39W TO 15N42W TO 11N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N
TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 54W FROM 14N TO 20N. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N49W 20N54W 21N59W.

$$
MT




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