[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100651 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

CORRECTION FOR THE 10/0600 UTC POSITION OF HURRICANE IKE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/0600 UTC IS NEAR 23.3N 84.6W
OR ABOUT 100 MILES/165 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO
ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N84W 22N81W 23N81W...AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W.
HAVANA CUBA REPORTED 2.74 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR
PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED TO THE EAST
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY...AND QUIK-SCAT
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
42W AND 52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THIS
AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

11N15W 10N33W 11N36W 10N47W 9N61W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 10N27W...AND THEN
WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N38W 7N50W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N50W 7N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 31N EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 20N102W 25N101W BEYOND 30N100W. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IN UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE AND THE MEXICO RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM 20N80W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
FROM HURRICANE IKE ALSO COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ONE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 31N9W IN MOROCCO TO 27N10W...THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM
27N10W TO 24N20W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N32W TO
ANOTHER CENTER NEAR 20N39W TO 15N42W TO 11N43W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 21N52W 18N53W
15N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN
47W AND 58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ONE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N50W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 29N59W TO A THIRD CENTER NEAR 25N68W TO 22N69W AND
20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

$$
MT





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