[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/0000 UTC IS NEAR 23.1N 84.0W
OR ABOUT 85 NM WEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING WNW AT 9
KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 10
KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ITCZ...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N35W 8N50W 9N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 20W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A
CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND MUCH
OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE INFORMATION. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HURRICANE IKE IS EMERGING INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE
IKE TO CATEGORY THREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
THE NW PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE IKE WAS INTERACTING WITH DRY NLY
FLOW TO LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IKE MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
PROXIMITY OF CABO LUCRECIA ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE PROVINCE
OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL TODAY IN WESTERN
CUBA NEAR PUNTA LA CAPITANA PINAR RIO AROUND 1030 AM EDT.
HURRICANE IKE THEN EMERGED INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR MANUEL SANGUILY ALSO IN THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL
RIO AROUND 500 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND GUST OF 118 MPH WAS
REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON AT PASO REAL IN PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE
IKE IS THE SECOND OF TWO HURRICANES TO HAVE STRUCK CUBA IN THE
PAST NINE DAYS...WHICH IS MAKES A NEW RECORD. IKE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT W-NW AWAY FROM CUBA...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE
COLOMBIA-PANAMA BORDER ALONG 76W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DIFFLUENCE IN AN ELONGATED REGION OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SAN JUAN NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. DEEP LAYER DRY EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  BASIN. MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE AS LOW
AS 1004 MB DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE IKE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE DRIFTING TO THE E OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 51W FROM 15N-22N. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS BEEN NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IS BENEATH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE
FEATURES ARE GENERALLY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IKE IS
IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS AND SW ATLANTIC.

$$
COHEN/RUBIO


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